Skin arbitrage, explained from zero

What arbitrage is, where the money actually goes after fees, and how to run your first simulated week with the noban desktop app. Written for people who have never traded a skin. No jargon, and no promises the math can't keep.

PART 1 · THE IDEA

What is skin arbitrage?

The whole strategy in one sentence: buy a skin on the market where it's cheap, sell it on the market where it's expensive, and keep the difference. The catch is that three separate costs eat into that difference, and most beginners only ever look at the first number.

MARKETS

One skin, many prices

The same AK-47 Redline trades on CSFloat, the Steam Community Market, Skinport, Buff163, and a half dozen other venues at the same moment. Each market has its own buyers, fees, and mood, so prices drift apart. When they drift far enough, the gap is an opportunity.

FEES

The spread is not your profit

Every sale pays a fee. Steam takes a 15% cut of each sale, CSFloat takes 2%, and other venues sit in between. A spread that looks juicy before fees is often a coin flip after them. The free calculator runs the exact numbers for any trade.

TIME

The 7-day hold parks your money

Items traded through Steam sit in a 7-day trade hold before they can move again. Your capital is locked while prices keep moving. That wait has a real cost, and the app prices it into every opportunity instead of pretending the week is free.

RISK

Why "no ban" is the whole game

Automating Steam Market purchases is against Steam's rules and can cost you the account. noban never automates a bannable action: it auto-buys only where automation is allowed and hands everything else to you as a manual step. That rule is enforced in code, not in a promise. Read the full safety design.

PART 2 · THE MATH

One trade, every cost

Say a skin is listed at $10.00 on CSFloat while the same skin sells for $12.50 on Steam. A 25% spread looks like free money. Here is where it actually goes. The figures below are computed live by the same fee engine the app ships with, not typed into this page.

guide://one-trade LIVE MATH
Buy on CSFloat
Sell on Steam
Gross spreadthe number that gets people excited
Steam sale feeSteam keeps 15% of every sale
Hold costyour money is parked for the 7-day hold
Profit, in Steam wallet credit
Cash-out haircutturning wallet credit into real cash costs about 20%
Profit, in withdrawable cash

Same trade, two different answers

That one trade is profitable in wallet credit and a loss in cash. Both answers are true at the same time, and knowing which one you're chasing is the difference between trading and fooling yourself.

THE WALLET TRAP

Steam pays you in wallet credit, and wallet credit can never be withdrawn. It's real value if you were going to buy skins or games anyway. But converting it to bank-account money means selling through third-party routes that cost roughly 20% more. Venues like CSFloat pay withdrawable cash directly, which is why the app scores every opportunity both ways and its Cash Out planner routes sales toward venues that pay actual money.

These figures are computed in your browser by calc-core.mjs, the same module our test suite pins against the app's profit engine. If the fee model changes, this page changes with it. Want to try your own numbers? Open the after-fee calculator.

PART 3 · YOUR FIRST WEEK

Your first week with noban

noban is a desktop app that runs entirely on your machine. It starts in simulation by default and stays there until you deliberately change it. Here is the whole journey, in order.

  1. 01

    Download and install

    Grab the Windows installer from the download section and run it. Builds are code-signed, and the trust page shows how to verify your download's hash if you want proof before you double-click.

  2. 02

    First launch SIMULATION

    The app opens in simulation with no account, no API keys, and no money involved. It reads live prices from keyless venues out of the box. Simulation is not a demo with fake data: it is the real trading engine paper-trading against real market prices.

  3. 03

    Let the radar fill

    Leave it running for a while. The scanner prices skins across every enabled venue and posts anything with a positive after-fee spread to the Opportunities view. On a quiet market day the list can be short. Short is honest; a radar that is always full is lying to you.

  4. 04

    Learn to read one row

    Each row is one opportunity: the skin, the venue to buy on, the venue whose price you'd sell against, and the net profit after fees and hold cost. The wear gauge shows the float value, because two copies of the same skin with different floats are different items with different prices.

  5. 05

    Meet the approval queue

    Anything the bot is not allowed to automate lands in the approval queue and waits for you. In simulation you can approve or reject pretend trades to learn the rhythm. Live, this queue is the wall between the bot and any bannable action: a Steam sale or an item delivery only ever happens when you press the button.

  6. 06

    Read your paper P&L

    After a few days, open Analytics. Every simulated trade is scored with the same after-fee, after-hold math as the worked example above, plus portfolio stats like drawdown. If your simulated results are negative, the market just taught you something for free. Let it.

  7. 07

    The go-live readiness checklist LIVE

    When you start wondering about real money, open the readiness panel on the Overview. It checks the unglamorous prerequisites: a valid pro license, venue API keys, spend caps configured, kill switch tested. It is display-only by design. Completing the checklist never flips the bot live; going live takes a deliberate config change plus a valid pro license, and that guard lives in the backend, not in a button.

  8. 08

    Decide if pro is worth it

    Free simulation does not expire, so there is no clock pushing you. Pro unlocks all eight venues, alerts, backtesting, and the tax-ready ledger; live trading requires it. If you do go live: start small, use money you can afford to leave parked through a 7-day hold, and treat your first live week as a second, more expensive simulation. See pricing for what each tier includes.

READ THIS BEFORE YOU SPEND A DOLLAR

The part a sales page would skip

  • Spreads close. Another trader can take the opportunity, or the price can move, in the minutes between scan and purchase. A listed spread is an observation, not a reservation.
  • The hold is real risk. Prices keep moving during the 7-day hold. A spread that was profitable on day one can be underwater by the day you're allowed to sell.
  • Simulated results are not a promise of live results. Simulation fills instantly at reference prices; live orders compete with humans and other bots. Expect live to be worse than sim, and be pleasantly surprised if it isn't.
  • You can lose money. Skin prices are volatile and nobody underwrites your trades. The app refuses to automate bannable actions; the market risk that remains is entirely yours.

The simulation is free, runs locally, and needs no keys. If a week of paper trading doesn't convince you, it costs nothing to walk away.